中国手表十大名牌:请高手来帮忙翻译一下这段!(7)

Japan's latent banking and debt crisis makes the yen less suitable as a vehicle for wider Asian monetary integration, some experts believe. In turn, the mighty dollar could become relatively less important in an area dominated by trade links with China. So argue George von Furstenberg and Jianjun Wei of Indiana University, in a recent academic paper proposing that a fourth major international currency, after the dollar, euro and yen, will have to crystallize in ontinental East Asia. "If and when China's currency . . . develops into a major international denomination rivalling the yen, it could become one of the two pillars of a multilateral monetary union with most other East Asian (and some Southeast Asian) countries," they
write.
Long-term trends lend support to this view. There is the growing sizeand importance of China's financial system, assuming sustained economic growth, and the fact that the relative importance of the U.S. market to China and Hong Kong is shrinking. "China is today a medium-sized economy with GDP equivalent to that of Italy," writes Jonathan Woetzel, a Shanghai-based director of consultants McKinsey & Co. in his new book Capitalist China. "What makes it distinctive is ts growth. By 2010, it is expected to almost double in size to rival Germany. With continued growth it will surpass Japan by 2020."
There are signs that East Asia's combined real GDP could even exceed that of the United States if productivity growth and technology catch-up continue at a rapid pace. "Based on this outlook," argue the paper's authors, "we do not share the view that maintaining a U.S. dollar peg, particularly with the yen-dollar rate on the loose, would continue to bring the blessings of stability to a continental East Asian monetary area far into the future."
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